INTRODUCTION
Definition of terms
Aso Rock: Aso Rock is a large outcrop (The part of a rock formation that
appears above the surface of the surrounding land) that is in the outskirts of
Abuja, the capital of Nigeria. The Aso Rock is a 400 meter monolith and is the city's most noticeable
feature. The Nigerian Presidential Complex, Nigerian National Assembly, and Nigerian Supreme Court are located around it. Much of the
town extends to the south of the rock. "Aso" means victorious in the
native language of the (now displaced) Asokoro ("the people of victory").
Battle for Aso Rock: This is a struggle for
political power. It is apparent that the fight for the presidential position in
2015 election would be a titanic battle. The race for the presidential election
is gathering momentum by the day. The south-easterners believe that it’s time
for them to produce a president. In spite of their socio-economic contribution
to the development of the country this is the first time one of their own
became president.
Religious perspective: this
could mean how religious groups concerned with sacred matters, religion or the
church see something or regard situations or topics.
CHAPTER ONE
2015
Election Palaver
The forth coming election seem to be in a confused state. Some
factors emphasize this:
Attacks On Jonathan- The attacks on the convoy of President Goodluck Jonathan and on his supporters in the
north last week worry me. His
motorcade was stoned in Kebbi,
Katsina and Bauchi. One of his supporters
was killed and five vehicles were burnt after the Kano rally. These bring to mind similar incidents before the 2011 elections. Over 800
lives were eventually lost and
property worth billions destroyed.
Violent attacks on the president of a country,
no matter his "offence", should never be overtly or covertly encouraged. Any presidential candidate should be able to campaign
anywhere in Nigeria no matter his
"offence"
Fayose's Folly: The quality of people in charge of Nigeria is not the best, but
it is more pathetic when you have an Ayo Fayose up there. His recent newspaper
advert in which he tried to use death as a campaign tool to frighten people
about Gen. Muhammadu Buhari's health is the cheapest campaign stunt I have ever
seen in my life. Who knows tomorrow? Even if Buhari has cancer, who told Fayose
that people with cancer die faster than others? Seemingly healthier people die every
day in accidents or from heart attacks, while cancer patients may even live up
to 90!
Run-Away Soldiers: We've been told that we are not winning the war against Boko
Haram because of corruption, leading to the under-equipment of our soldiers. However,
Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd), the national security adviser, has added another
dimension to the debate: cowardice. He said some soldiers simply run away from
battle, having joined the military basically out of unemployment. He said 4000
rounds of heavy ammunition and six APCs were captured from the military in Baga
as soldiers fled when Boko Haram approached. In fairness, you cannot have as
many APCs and such heavy ammunition and still claim to be under-equipped.
No Postponement: There are fears that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may not be
ready for the 2015 elections because
of the permanent voters' card (PVC)
issue. Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd), the
national security adviser, said he advised
INEC to shift the election within the three-month
window to avoid disenfranchising 30
million Nigerians. I think he has a good point, but it is too late in the day to suggest that now.
Before INEC fixed February for the polls, all these issues should
have been factored in. Now it has been moved to March. No more postponement
please, even by one hour. Let's just allow sleeping dogs lie.
1.2 Jonathan and Buhari battle for Aso Rock
Jonathan has the power of
incumbency on his side but the Northerners seem to be united and have a large
population as the biggest zone.
Winning the March 28 presidential
election is not going to be a stroll in the park for President Goodluck
Jonathan of the ruling People’s Democratic Party(PDP) or Gen. Mohammad Buhari
of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for that matter. But, the APC standard
bearer seems to enjoy the momentum, going by the good run he and his party is
enjoying in the media. This is crucial because when it comes to elections,
public perception cannot be waved aside just like that; particularly in this
age, with the advancement in the world of information communication technology.
The PDP,
which has been at the helm of affairs at the centre for the past 16 years, had
been having it so easy in previous elections, because most of the parties in
the opposition were regional-based, weak and fragmented. It was clearly
foreseen that with the coming of the APC, which has transformed the country
into a two-party state, a competitive contest was in the offing. In fact, it is
said that this was the reasoning that propelled the move to form the APC,
immediately after the 2011 elections. The ruling PDP saw it coming. But, since
old habits die hard, it could not turn a new leaf overnight. In that regard,
the APC has been more proactive. Internal democracy has been a major problem for
most Nigerian political parties. But, the APC has demonstrated willingness for
change in this respect with the manner it conducted its recent presidential primary,
where Buhari was picked as the party’s flag bearer. The opposition party has
sent a strong signal to the ruling party with its decision to conduct the
primary, even though it was clear to everyone that Buhari is the best man for
the job, compared to the other aspirants. In the same vein, many observers
believe that, as a sitting President, Jonathan would have equally picked up the
party’s presidential ticket, if the party had allowed a free and fair election
to take place. The clear message is that, for the first time since 2003, the
PDP is facing a genuine challenge of being defeated at the polls.
Indeed, Jonathan faces a tough
re-election battle. He appears to be confronted with a crisis of credibility.
Analysts say he came with a lot of promise, but seems to have disappointed a
lot of Nigerians who voted for him in 2011. Such Nigerians say the President
has squandered the opportunity handed to him because one of his campaign
messages of having no shoes as a young man moved them and they felt they could
trust someone who comes from within their ranks. The underdog factor also
worked in his favour when he was contesting the 2011 election, following the
way the cabal in the late Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration tried to prevent him
from taking over power, even though it was obvious that his principal was
incapacitated.
Being an
incumbent comes with the benefits and advantages of having something to
showcase. It provides an opportunity to make more promises of a better
tomorrow. Yet, the same incumbency factor opens the occupant of the office to a
lot of criticisms about errors committed, things left undone or things that
could have been done better. The perception of the public is that President
Jonathan has performed below par. He would not have found himself in a
situation where he would be struggling for his re-election had he delivered on
key promises. The President’s team is not doing much to improve his poor public
perception.
The APC has
been exploiting this, by not giving him a breathing space; the party has stayed
on the message all the time. The refrain of APC is that the PDP has run the country
aground. It regularly cites the brazen corruption, the widespread insecurity
and the worsening insurgency in the Northeast as reasons why Nigerians should
vote for change.
It is not as
if the mild-mannered Jonathan does not have achievements to flaunt. But,
against the mountain of expectations, the general perception is that Jonathan,
56, has performed below par. In August 2012, Jonathan claimed he was the
world’s most criticised president. This prompted him to vow to become the most
praised before he leaves office.
With the
changing political landscape in the country, which has whittled down the
enormous advantages hitherto enjoyed by the ruling party, it is clear that the
era of impunity is over.
CHAPTER TWO
Religious perspective of the battle
for Aso rock
Christian body in the
country; under the umbrella of Christian
Association of Nigeria, CAN, has warned
President Goodluck Jonathan to ‘tighten his seat belt’ in the New Year, or
honourably resign and vacate the Aso Villa.
Chairman of the South- East chapter of CAN and the Anglican Bishop
of Enugu, Rt. Rev. Dr. Emmanuel Chukwuma handed this warning to Jonathan in a
New Year message released on Tuesday. The cleric said that President Jonathan
must rise to the challenges facing his administration, especially the alleged
cases of corruption in the polity, unemployment and epileptic power supply. The
cleric avowed that if Jonathan fails to live up to expectation, he should
prepare to vacate the Aso Rock in 2015.
Bishop Chukwuma who said that doom awaits the ruling Peoples
Democratic Party, PDP, in the New Year noted that except the likes of Chief Tony
Anenih and Alhaji Bamanga Tukur retire from active politics, the party would
continue to face greater calamities.
“If those elders I warned before to retire don’t retire, then the
party will be in trouble in 2014. At 80, Anenih should retire; Bamangar Tukur
should retire. These people should now serve as elders and advisers; if they do
that, PDP will get its dignity back, but while you still have these analogue leaders
and elders in the party and the polity, forget about PDP in 2015,” he warned. He
called on President Jonathan to be focused in the New Year to avoid attracting
the wrath of the greater percentage of Nigerians, noting that since the buck
stops at his table, all blames of every failure in his government would be
completely laid at his doorstep.
Chukwuma said, “The letter between Obasanjo and Jonathan is a
boomerang of Obasanjo’s selfish act in enthroning a president of his choice for
Nigeria.
“There are many better leaders out there than Jonathan who would
have been elected, but Obasanjo selfishly maneuvered Jonathan into leadership
by first putting a sick Yar’Adua in power. Because he couldn’t control him
anymore, he started writing letters. “That is why Jonathan must be focused in
2014 in order to prove himself worthy for 2015. “Failure to do that and he gets
distracted and doesn’t prove himself, and Nigeria continues with the way it is
today with corruption, no light, poverty, unemployment, I beg him, he should
just step aside, let us seek for a better leader in 2015. “He has tried in the
last six years, and rather than the thing getting him into trouble, and cause
him more tension, I think Nigeria is greater than everybody, all of them should
give way and give room for new spirit to rule Nigeria from 2015,” he said. Bishop
Chukwuma however called on Nigerians to be more faithful to God by pursuing
peace and righteousness.
In a Media Chat, Jonathan’s campaign valedictory was “We should
all work dedicatedly for the unity and peace of this nation as we celebrate our
country.
Any attempt by anybody to fuel violence or confusion will call for
the review of our amalgamation,”
2.2 Nigerians
expectation of the battle for Aso Rock
For the 2015 elections it would have been preferable to have an opposition
that is based on ideology and the clamor for change based solely on the failure
of the Jonathan government to deliver at the national levels. After all many
state governors failed to deliver at the state levels and many local government
chairmen are mere crooks. The upcoming general elections in Nigeria elections
are brewing a lot of anger, dissatisfaction, hatred, bitterness and vengeance.
The coming days are going to be tougher for Nigerians. The global price
of oil is dropping by the day. The government as it appeared has not saved for
the rainy days despite being mainly a single-market economy, relying heavily on
the sales of crude oil for sustainability.
Almost 60 years of maladministration may catch up with Nigeria,
suddenly. Lack of foresight and lack of planning for the future may catch up
with Nigeria. Greed, selfishness and corruption may catch up with Nigeria.
Allowing corrupt and silly people including dictators to rule in Nigeria may
catch up with Nigeria. These ingredients-elections under uncertainties, deep
seated hatred between and among tribes, religion brainwashes, bitterness and a failing
economy likely to make monsters out of men-in a country already on a free fall
might spell disaster unless a Nigerian-styled fire brigade shock absorber is
set off early.
The success of the elections, the outcomes and the acceleration of
quick-fixes that may beam of hope will sustain the resilient spirits of Nigerians.
It may put the mayhem on hold in western Nigerian and other places.
There is nothing that is too late in life. It’s still about a
month to the elections. Who will embark on the rapid nation-wide campaign to down
tone the influence of religion as the countdown to the election days draw near?
Will INEC? What about the Ministry of Information? What will happen in Adamawa,
Yobe and Borno during the elections? Who will put a hold to the financial recklessness
at Aso rock? Who will stop the draining of funds from the APC states so that
the people can have more benefits? Will it require Jonathan worshipping in a
mosque or Buhari conducting a church service to show ignorant Nigerians that religion
is not supposed to be significant in public service?
Ekiti
State Governor, Mr. Ayodele Fayose, has described the All Progressives Congress
as capable of causing chaos in Nigeria with the statements being made by its
leadership. Fayose, in a statement made available to Saturday PUNCH on
Friday, blamed the APC for what he called a “campaign of hate.”He described the
APC presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, as an “Islamist who is
out to return power to the northerners and implement Islamic agenda.”He said
this could trigger crisis in the Niger-Delta area of the country in the
South-South, where President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party
hails from. Buhari, on the other hand, is from the North-Western part of the
country.
2.3 Buhari and the
Burden of Expectations
To be honest, I don't know whether to rejoice or sympathize with
Gen. Muhammadu Buhari anytime I read all the sweet comments about him on social
media especially on Twitter. I don't know any presidential candidate who has been
so idolized in recent times which is an excellent accolade any politician will
gladly take. On the one hand, it is good for him. He will not be complaining at
all. No politician will complain about such good fortune, especially with only
a few weeks to an election. On the other hand, the expectations are sky-high. From what I am reading, Buhari is expected to
perform nothing short of magic in Aso Rock if he wins the presidential
election.
Buhari's growing popularity, particularly on the social media,
scares me at times. In an attempt to market him, some chaps have gone
overboard, designing and spreading beautiful disinformation about him such that
even the former head of state has had to come out to clarify one. For instance,
there is a message being circulated that Buhari's daughter is married to an
Igbo man. Those who invented the rumour had a good intention: they wanted to
prove to the world that he is not a bigot. But Buhari, perhaps honest to a
fault, has denied it. He said none of his children is married to an Igbo man.
Interestingly, the rumour was attributed to Obasanjo by one of the
broadcasters!
There is even another social media rumour that Buhari does not
collect his full pension. A Blackberry broadcast I got a while ago said while all
former heads of state collect N27 million per month as pension, Buhari rejected
the "bogus amount" and asked to be paid only 10% of it. The person
who originated the rumour said he personally went to the Ministry of Finance to
confirm the figure. Buhari never rejected any part of it, it is his legal
right. Why would he not collect it? Good enough, Buhari has not anchored his campaign
on any of these phantom stories. He has based his campaign on two promises — to
fight corruption and to tackle insecurity. These issues speak directly to the
heart of the average Nigerian. BokoHaram has made our lives miserable. What we
thought was a mere neighbourhood gathering of some religious zealots some years
ago has developed into a massive bomb that is shattering the peace and eating
away at our territorial integrity. Buhari, as a retired general, is expected to
wipe out BokoHaram if he wins. Also, corruption is, to put it mildly, a
pounding headache. As a celebrated man of integrity, Buhari is expected to
finish off corruption with one blow to the head. Unfortunately, many Nigerians
could be very fickle. Imagine the nicknames young people would start calling
Buhari on Twitter by this time next year if he has not performed some magic
—assuming he wins the presidential election. They derided President Umaru Musa
Yar'Adua even on his deathbed. President Goodluck Jonathan's honeymoon lasted
for barely six months. The guys that called him "breath of fresh air"
started calling him "shoeless and clueless" as soon as he withdrew
fuel subsidy in January 2012. I don’t think Jonathan ever recovered from the massive
blow the subsidy issue dealt on him. Buhari's honeymoon, if he wins, would not
last for six months, trust me. One of the confessions of Obasanjo in 1999 was
that the world had changed remarkably since 1979 when he left power. As a
military man, he could get things done by fiat. As a democrat, he needed to go through
the National Assembly to get a simple budget passed. He needed to
"lobby" them to make laws for the good of Nigeria. Judges were dragging
their feet on corruption cases until he resorted to self-help through the EFCC.
These are some of the realities Buhari would also face if he wins. The Nigeria
he led in 1985 is not the same today. Getting things done in a democracy is a
different ball game altogether. God help Buhari if, assuming he wins, he is
unable to stop BokoHaram's suicide bombers. God help him if the terrorists
continue to grab more villages under his watch. God help him if his government
has not created 2.5 million jobs by May 2016 — as promised by his party, the
All Progressives Congress (APC). God help him if we are still unable to enjoy
steady power supply two years into his tenure. God help him if the courts are
yet to jail any corrupt politician three years into his tenure. God help him if
crude oil prices skyrocket and he has to increase fuel price or pay N1trillion
annually on subsidies. He won't find it funny!
Unfortunately, the reality is that Nigeria will not change overnight.
There are no shortcuts to solving some of our deep-seated problems. The road
ahead is very rough, particularly as crude oil — the livewire of our economy —
continues to tumble, pricewise. Truth is no matter who wins the presidential
election — whether it is Jonathan or Buhari — there are tough decisions ahead.
Tough decisions about the oil industry, electricity tariffs, military action
against BokoHaram which may come with collateral damage, downsizing the civil
service, among others.
In an interview with The Cable last year, Buhari said:
"Nigerians have to be prepared to suffer for at least five straight years
before we can stabilise this country, security wise and economically." In
other words, there are no fertilisers to accelerate the development of Nigeria.
I do not blame Nigerians for being impatient. The only thing a hungry man wants
to hear is “food is ready”, not “food will be ready”. But a more realistic
expectation is that no matter who is president, we need policy consistency, commitment
and funding for at least 10 solid years before we can be anywhere near South Korea
or Singapore. Rome was not built in a day. The tough truth remains that no one
man will change or transform Nigeria overnight.
Conclusion
There is no unifying factor on ground in 2015. In the time past, male
football has helped to hold Nigeria together. Nigeria is not playing at the
2015 Nations Cup.
The omen up to March does not look good. Additional
characteristics for building a successful future for Nigerians and the unborn generations
must be elaborated: long term developmental goals, functional political
structures, devolution of power to states/regions, true federalism, purposeful implementations
of programs to diversify the economy, focus on education, science and
technology, dedication to people and country and the respect for the equal
value of the human life. All of these will be useful.
A country is the sum of the people’s wisdom or foolishness. Nigeria
tamed her men and women of valor and good characters. Stupidity was elevated in
public offices.
As Nigerians we are expected to stop raining insults on Northerners and
avoid maligning innocent Muslims. A President is the father of the nation.
The President’s handlers should worry more about how the goodwill of 2011 got frittered away in such a jiffy.
The President’s handlers should worry more about how the goodwill of 2011 got frittered away in such a jiffy.
References
Daily post
Nig. CAN’s warning to President Jonathan;
election, a season of uncertainties. January 01 2014.
Punch newspaper. Thy glory o’ Nigeria; it hasn’t been a great year. Saturday 27
December 2014.
This day live newspaper. Buhari and the burden of expectations. Friday
20 February 2015.
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